Hopewell Valley Regional School District’s student enrollment is growing faster than projected three years ago, with the strongest gains concentrated at Bear Tavern and Stony Brook elementary schools, according to a new demographic analysis presented Tuesday evening by consultant Pat Gallagher of the MP Planning Group. The update confirms the district is now trending in the medium–high growth range, driven largely by migration into new housing developments in Hopewell Township.
The presentation, which drew about 60 live attendees, and is available on the district’s website, compared the district’s 2022 projections to actual enrollment and incorporated updated data on births, housing construction, and migration patterns. Gallagher reported that the medium projection model, the model recommended in 2022, has proven “very accurate,” falling within 1.2% districtwide of the actual 2025–26 enrollment. Elementary totals were especially close to expectations, while middle and high school numbers are running slightly higher than forecast due to stronger-than-expected in-migration.
Growth concentrated in Bear Tavern and Stony Brook
The update shows the clearest increases in the elementary zones where new developments are opening. Over the last three years, HVRSD has gained 137 students overall, including 115 at the elementary level, reversing a decade-long decline. This year alone, Bear Tavern added 56 new-to-district students and Stony Brook added 69, with net in-migration at those schools more than double their five-year averages.
Much of that growth is tied to new units at Hopewell Parc, The Collection at Hopewell, and Woodmont Forge, with hundreds of units permitted but not yet occupied.
“We’ve seen a real uptick as those new housing units have come online,” Gallagher said, noting that only 14% of the 1,098 permits issued in the last three years have translated into completed units so far—meaning additional enrollment increases are expected as construction continues.
Treece: “This is growth the Valley hasn’t seen in a long time”
Superintendent Dr. Rosetta Treece, who ordered the update this fall in cooperation with Hopewell Township, said the results were not surprising but were important to validate publicly.“
This was a follow-up to the original report,” she said. “I knew that it was pretty close to their prediction… it was pretty close.” The update confirmed what administrators were already seeing in real time: “We’re trending in the higher end of these models.”
Treece said the district wanted the most up-to-date data to guide long-term planning, especially with new housing proposals emerging in all three municipalities.“
I want to have the most up-to-date, accurate information to be sure that I’m capturing what’s coming so that we can make future plans,” she said. “As long as we have the lines of communication open, and we know what’s coming, we’re going to be in a good place.”
She added that the pace of development marks a significant shift: “The level of growth that’s going on in this community is growth that you all haven’t seen in the Valley in a long time.” After years of declining enrollment due to a lack of construction, “it is a lot of growth for a community that hasn’t seen any for a while.”
Classroom space remains tight until building additions arrive
Though this fall’s enrollment growth generally aligned with demographic expectations, Treece acknowledged that families are feeling the pressure inside buildings—especially at Bear Tavern and Stony Brook, the elementary schools absorbing the largest share of new students. Rising enrollment at both schools has intensified sectioning challenges, strained support spaces, and limited the district’s flexibility to redistribute students when pockets of growth emerge.
The timing of the demographic update comes just weeks after Hopewell Valley voters approved both Question 1 and Question 2 of the November school referendum. Question 1 funds critical infrastructure repairs across all six schools, but Question 2 directly addresses capacity, authorizing building additions at Bear Tavern Elementary and Toll Gate Grammar School.
At Bear Tavern, the referendum funds new classroom space designed to eliminate the use of the temporary trailers, and relieve mounting pressure tied to large in-migration from developments such as Hopewell Parc. Gallagher’s analysis shows Bear Tavern experiencing some of the strongest increases in new-to-district students, a trend expected to continue as additional housing phases are completed.
At Toll Gate, the approved addition will eliminate the school’s use of temporary trailers and bring all instructional spaces back inside the main building. The expanded classroom capacity will also give the district more flexibility to balance enrollment across schools—an important tool during this period of steady elementary growth.
Treece said she is grateful for the community’s support but noted that the benefits will not be immediate. “We are going to feel the discomfort of this for a little while longer,” she said. “In the meantime, I still have a set number of classrooms.”
With the additions now approved, the updated projections will help guide phased construction planning and future decisions about classroom deployment as the district prepares for continued growth.
How far the new projections carry the district
Gallagher’s medium projection anticipates moderate, continued growth over the next decade, with district enrollment rising by about 14% by 2035–36. The high projection shows growth of more than 20%, while the low model assumes minimal change.
Treece said she does not expect to commission another update immediately. “Based on what I have right now… I think we’re good for the next few years,” she said, adding that another study would be needed sooner if additional large-scale housing emerges.
For now, the district’s updated demographic picture is clear: enrollment is growing, the growth is concentrated where the new housing is, and that trend is expected to continue.
