by David Chait, Hopewell Township Committee member
We will be welcoming new neighbors to Hopewell Township over the next decade and beyond. Three projects are currently under construction: one on Scotch Road, one off Federal City Road near 295, and one near the Pennington Circle. In order to ensure that we are prepared for these new neighbors, the Hopewell Township Committee, along with our partners at the Hopewell Valley School District, funded an independent demographic study. The demographer, chosen by the School District, looked at the potential impacts on our schools, including enrollment drivers, enrollment trends, and most importantly, enrollment projections.
The results of this independent study were shared during a District wide Zoom on Wednesday, January 11. I joined the Zoom not only in my capacity as a member of the Township Committee, but also as a District parent, with a daughter at Bear Tavern.
At the meeting, the demographers shared lots of helpful information with residents. Specifically they provided three sets of projections and recommended using the “Medium Projections” for guidance. At a high level, it was shared at the meeting that no new schools in the District will be required.
Historically, the schools have seen a decrease in enrollment with PK-12 enrollment decreasing by over 7% during the past 10 years and current enrollment is over 500 students below the District’s peak enrollment during the 2006-07 school year. Intuitively, this decrease provides physical capacity for more students to be absorbed into the District.
In looking at the recommended “Medium Projections”, the District would see growth of 12.6%, or 431 students, over a period of 10 years, which is through the 2032-33 school year. For context, this is only 4.6%, or 171 students, higher than 2013-14 enrollment, the first year of data in the report and still below 2006-2007 enrollment.
Furthermore, 40% of the coming 10 year growth comes from typical, organic factors like births, and home sales. This means that over the next 10 years, there will be only 250 to 260 new students from new neighbors associated with development to meet the Township’s Affordable Housing mandate.
As was made clear by the District at the meeting, based on these projections there will be no need for any additional schools in the District, though renovations and configuration adjustments will be needed to accommodate. Additionally, Bear Tavern and (to a lesser extent) Stony Brook Elementary, will see proportionally larger student population increases and may require additional capacity, such as an addition on Bear Tavern. Based upon the demographer’s report, HVRSD Superintendent Dr. Rosetta Treece shared that the District is investigating incremental changes needed to prepare such as classroom space, class size and resource utilization. And we are committed to continue working with the District towards potential solutions.
Additionally, with these increases in enrollment taking place over the next 10 or more years, impacts will be incremental for anyone with students already in the District. Nonetheless, all stakeholders are committed to addressing these changes in a timely manner for future students.
I would like to thank Dr. Treece, Assistant Superintendent Robert Colavita, Board of Education (BOE) President Anita Williams Galiano, the District, the BOE, and the independent demographers for the report and for hosting such an informative and open meeting. The Township Committee is pleased to help fund the study. We are grateful for our partners in the District and are always committed to working together.
Independent Demographer Report Addresses New Neighborhoods’ Impact to Schools
We will be welcoming new neighbors to Hopewell Township over the next decade and beyond. Three projects are currently under construction: one on Scotch Road, one off Federal City Road near 295, and one near the Pennington Circle. In order to ensure that we are prepared for these new neighbors, the Hopewell Township Committee, along with our partners at the Hopewell Valley School District, funded an independent demographic study. The demographer, chosen by the School District, looked at the potential impacts on our schools, including enrollment drivers, enrollment trends, and most importantly, enrollment projections.
The results of this independent study were shared during a District wide Zoom on Wednesday, January 11th. I joined the Zoom not only in my capacity as a member of the Township Committee, but also as a District parent, with a daughter at Bear Tavern.
At the meeting, the demographers shared lots of helpful information with residents. Specifically they provided three sets of projections and recommended using the “Medium Projections” for guidance. At a high level, it was shared at the meeting that no new schools in the District will be required.
Historically, the schools have seen a decrease in enrollment with PK-12 enrollment decreasing by over 7% during the past 10 years and current enrollment is over 500 students below the District’s peak enrollment during the 2006-07 school year. Intuitively, this decrease provides physical capacity for more students to be absorbed into the District.
In looking at the recommended “Medium Projections”, the District would see growth of 12.6%, or 431 students, over a period of 10 years, which is through the 2032-33 school year. For context, this is only 4.6%, or 171 students, higher than 2013-14 enrollment, the first year of data in the report and still below 2006-2007 enrollment.
Furthermore, 40% of the coming 10 year growth comes from typical, organic factors like births, and home sales. This means that over the next 10 years, there will be only 250 to 260 new students from new neighbors associated with development to meet the Township’s Affordable Housing mandate.
As was made clear by the District at the meeting, based on these projections there will be no need for any additional schools in the District, though renovations and configuration adjustments will be needed to accommodate. Additionally, Bear Tavern and (to a lesser extent) Stony Brook Elementary, will see proportionally larger student population increases and may require additional capacity, such as an addition on Bear Tavern. Based upon the demographer’s report, HVRSD Superintendent Dr. Rosetta Treece shared that the District is investigating incremental changes needed to prepare such as classroom space, class size and resource utilization. And we are committed to continue working with the District towards potential solutions.
Additionally, with these increases in enrollment taking place over the next 10 or more years, impacts will be incremental for anyone with students already in the District. Nonetheless, all stakeholders are committed to addressing these changes in a timely manner for future students.
I would like to thank Dr. Treece, Assistant Superintendent Robert Colavita, Board of Education (BOE) President Anita Williams Galiano, the District, the BOE, and the independent demographers for the report and for hosting such an informative and open meeting. The Township Committee is pleased to help fund the study. We are grateful for our partners in the District and are always committed to working together.
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